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The Markets
It was a clean sweep for the Nasdaq as it posted gains on all four days of a market week shortened by Martin Luther King Day. As the Nasdaq was moving into positive territory for the year, the other major indices lost ground on Friday, at least in part due to the uncertainty caused by the death of Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah, but all posted solid gains for the week. The markets generally ignored signs of an economic slowdown in China and the continuing slide in oil prices.
Last Week's Headlines
- While "deflategate" dominated American airwaves last week, concern about a deflationary spiral of a different kind caused the European Central Bank to announce a qualitative easing program worth at least €1.1 trillion ($1.3 trillion). The ECB hopes this monetary stimulus will increase investment and consumption, and turn around Europe's stagnating economy.
- Greek drama redux: Greece's anti-austerity opposition party Syriza, led by Alexis Tsipras, topped vote-getters in Sunday's election, but fell just two seats short of the number necessary for a parliamentary majority, leading Syriza to announce it would form a coalition government with another anti-austerity party, the Independent Greeks. At risk, with the anti-bailout Syriza party in control, is Greece's willingness to go along with conditions imposed by its creditors after bailouts in 2011 and 2013, which could prompt fresh concerns about default and a "Grexit" from the eurozone.
- Despite low inventories, existing-home sales bounced back in December and climbed above an annual pace of 5 million sales for the sixth time in seven months, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Existing-home sales rose 2.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.04 million in December, up from 4.92 million in November, and up 3.5% from last December, the third straight month of year-over-year increases. Median home prices for 2014 rose to $208,500, their highest level since 2007, but total sales fell 3.1% from 2013.
- Meanwhile, the Department of Commerce announced that new residential construction rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,089,000, a 4.4% increase over November, and a 5.3% increase over December 2013. Single family home starts rose 7.2% in December, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 728,000, the best since 2007.
- The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index® for the United States increased 0.5% in December, following a 0.4% increase in November, and a 0.6% increase in October. Ataman Ozyildirim, Economist at The Conference Board, said that "December's gain in the LEI was driven by a majority of its components, suggesting the short-term outlook is getting brighter and the economy continues to build momentum."
Eye on the Week Ahead
In what should be a very interesting week, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve to see how the European stimulus plan might impact the Fed's plans for U.S. interest rates. And investors will be closely watching for any developments in Saudi Arabia and Greece. Meanwhile, earnings season continues in high gear, with major companies like Apple and Microsoft reporting.
Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.
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