Monday, June 24, 2013

Market Week: June 24, 2013

The Markets

After the Federal Reserve laid out its blueprint for tapering off its economic support, financial markets promptly went into what was quickly dubbed a "taper tantrum." The Dow followed a 206-point loss the afternoon of the Fed announcement with a 354-point drop the next day, its worst loss of the year. The S&P 500 is now down 4.6% from the record high set on May 21, while the Dow and Nasdaq are down 3.9% and 4.1% respectively in the same time. However, the small caps of the Russell 2000 actually managed to close a point above May's high before joining the other indices in the post-Fed retreat. The Global Dow took the worst beating, hurt not only by Fed anxiety but by concerns about liquidity problems and weaker manufacturing reports in China as well as renewed worries about aid for Greece. Combined with the quadruple witching options expiration at week's end, it all made for a perfect storm for financial markets.
Investors who had poured money into bonds in recent years continued to reverse that trend. The 10-year Treasury yield soared almost four-tenths of a percentage point last week alone, topping 2.5% for the first time since August 2011, and bond prices generally fell sharply across the board, since bond prices tend to move in the opposite direction from yields. Gold, which has been suffering for months because of a stronger dollar, plunged roughly $80 an ounce after the Fed announcement, ending at just under $1,300.

Last Week's Headlines

  • The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) outlined a tentative game plan for reducing the economic support it has provided over the last few years. Assuming the current moderate economic expansion continues, the Fed may begin cutting back on its $85 billion a month worth of bond purchases by the end of the year and could end them entirely in 2014. Once the unemployment rate falls to around 6.5%, it will consider raising the target Fed funds interest rate above 0.25% for the first time in more than four years. The announcement raised investor concerns about whether the global economy would wobble once the training wheels known as quantitative easing are removed.
  • Home resales were up 4.2% in May, according to the National Association of Realtors®, and were almost 13% higher than in May 2012. Low inventories continued to constrain sales and helped send the median resale price to its 15th straight month of year-over-year increases.
  • The Federal Reserve's Empire State manufacturing index showed modest improvement, and the Philly Fed manufacturing index hit its highest level in more than two years. However, HSBC's survey of Chinese purchasing managers showed manufacturing there at its lowest level in nine months.
  • Consumer prices went up 0.1% in May, driven primarily by housing costs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That put the consumer inflation rate for the last year at 1.4%.
  • Housing starts increased 6.8% in May, and the Commerce Department said they were 28.6% higher than a year earlier. Residential building permits--an indicator of future construction activity--fell 3.1% during the month but were almost 21% higher than last May.
  • The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators rose 0.1% in May, though at a slower pace than the month before. Three of the index's 10 indicators--stock prices, credit availability, and the interest-rate spread--were responsible for the increase.
  • China's central bank injected additional cash into the financial system there to ease concerns about liquidity between banks and bring down money market interest rates that had hit records.
  • A meeting of European Union finance ministers to set rules for dealing with failing banks was dominated by reports that the International Monetary Fund's aid payments to Greece could be in jeopardy later this summer because of a shortfall in funding for the aid package.

Eye on the Week Ahead

As the second quarter comes to a close, a number of Federal Reserve governors or board members are scheduled to make speeches that could elaborate on last week's Fed announcement. Housing data also is on tap, but investors may continue to focus on central banks around the globe and particularly in China.
Key dates and data releases: Dallas Fed manufacturing survey (6/24); durable goods orders, home prices, new home sales (6/25); final Q1 GDP figure (6/26); personal income/spending (6/27).

Data sources: Includes data provided by Brounes & Associates. All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indexes listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

Monday, June 17, 2013

Market Week: June 17, 2013

The Markets

Investors already on edge about the future of central bank efforts around the globe seemed unnerved by the Bank of Japan's decision not to expand economic stimulus efforts there and arguments over a German court challenge to the European Central Bank's ability to aid weaker eurozone members. The Dow industrials continued to see triple-digit swings, and it was the third week out of the last four in which the S&P 500 has lost more than 1%. Bond markets, under pressure for the last six weeks, suffered from mood swings, especially abroad. The 10-year Treasury managed to rebound from midweek losses, though demand at an auction of 30-year Treasuries was weak.


Last Week's Headlines

  • A nearly 2% increase in auto-related sales helped drive up retail spending 0.6% in May, according to the Commerce Department; not counting autos, sales rose 0.3% for the month. Total sales were 4.3% higher than a year earlier.
  • After the Bank of Japan declined to inject further economic stimulus through further expansion of its bond-buying program, the yen rose strongly against the U.S. dollar. The BOJ's decision raised concerns that a stronger yen might make Japanese companies less competitive globally.
  • Wholesale prices rose 0.5% in May, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The increase was driven largely by the prices of gas, trucks, and food (a 41.6% leap in the cost of eggs was responsible for 60% of the increase in food prices). The May figure brought the wholesale inflation rate for the last year to 1.7%.
  • U.S. industrial output was little changed in May. The Federal Reserve said utilization of the nation's manufacturing capacity slipped 0.1% to 77.6%, while industrial production was up 0.1% after declining slightly for two months. In China, factory output slipped slightly in May but was still up 9.2% year-to-date.
  • Standard and Poor's raised its outlook for the United States' credit rating from negative to stable, though it maintained its AA+ rating for U.S. debt. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund lowered its forecast for U.S. growth in 2014 to 2.7% from 3%, and cautioned that the Fed should be careful about withdrawing economic support too quickly.

Eye on the Week Ahead

Tale of the taper: All eyes will be on the Fed's Wednesday announcement and Chairman Ben Bernanke's press conference afterwards for any guidance on when economic support might begin tapering off. Coupled with key manufacturing and housing data as well as the quadruple witching options expiration at week's end, there's a lot of potential for the news to move markets.
Key dates and data releases: Empire State manufacturing survey, international capital flows (6/17); housing starts, consumer prices (6/18); Federal Open Market Committee meeting announcement (6/19); home resales, Philly Fed manufacturing survey (6/20); quadruple witching options expiration (6/21).

Data sources: Includes data provided by Brounes & Associates. All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indexes listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

Monday, June 10, 2013

Market Week: June 10, 2013

The Markets

All's well that ends well: After losing 217 points on Wednesday, the Dow came roaring back with a 207-point gain two days later. Despite all the volatility, domestic equities managed minimal gains for the week across all four indices. Investors seemed reassured that the unemployment rate showed continued stabilization of the economy but not enough progress to bring on a quick end to the Fed's economic support.

Last Week's Headlines

  • Steady as she goes: The unemployment rate nudged upward slightly to 7.6% in May as 175,000 jobs were added to the nation's payrolls and more people sought work, expanding the potential labor force. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the private sector added 178,000 jobs, while 3,000 government jobs were eliminated.
  • For the first time since November, the Institute for Supply Management's survey of manufacturing activity indicated contraction with a 49% reading in May (any number below 50% represents not just slower growth but contraction). The Commerce Department said factory orders for U.S. goods rebounded from a sharp decline in March, but April's 1% increase was primarily the result of transportation-related orders. Aside from those, orders were down 0.1%.
  • Growth in the U.S. services sector accelerated in May, according to the Institute for Supply Management's survey. May's 53.7% reading was 0.6% higher than April's 53.1%, and was the 41st straight month of growth.
  • The Federal Reserve's "beige book" report continued to see "modest to moderate" economic activity. Manufacturing, tourism, residential real estate/construction, and bank lending saw fairly uniform gains in much of the country. Wage pressures remained contained, though some Fed districts reported difficulty finding qualified workers.
  • Construction spending rose 0.4% in April; the Commerce Department said private construction was up 1%, though residential spending fell 0.1%. Public construction was down 1.2% for the month.
  • To try to prevent the sort of massive redemptions that posed problems during the 2008 financial crisis, the Securities and Exchange Commission unveiled two proposals for changing how some money market funds operate. One proposal would require institutional money market funds to more accurately reflect changes in the fund's net asset value (NAV) by trading at a floating NAV rather than a stable $1-per-share price.* (Retail money market fund--those that don't permit a shareholder to redeem more than $1 million in a single day--and funds that hold mostly government securities would be exempt.) The second proposal would establish a liquidity fee if a fund's weekly liquid assets fell below 15% of its total assets; in that case, the fund also could restrict redemptions for up to 30 days. The SEC also might combine the two proposals; the public will have 90 days to comment.
  • After a sharp decline in March, the U.S. trade deficit widened 8.6% in April, according to the Commerce Department. Exports rose more than 1%, but a 21% increase in imports from China pushed imports up 2.4% overall.
  • The European Central Bank kept its key interest rate unchanged at a record low of 0.5% despite the ECB's forecast of a 0.6% contraction in the European economy in 2013. The estimate was more pessimistic than the previous estimate of a 0.5% contraction, but the 2014 forecast was revised upward to 1.1% growth rather than 1%.

Eye on the Week Ahead

U.S. economic data will be skimpy, though retail sales numbers could suggest the state of the consumer's pocketbook. The Bank of Japan's announcement on monetary policy might be of interest, since it could mean additional economic stimulus there. Investors will watch to see if domestic equities head back toward May's record highs or continue to see volatility.
Key dates and data releases: retail sales, business inventories, 30-year Treasury bond auction (6/13); wholesale prices, industrial production (6/14).

Data sources: Includes data provided by Brounes & Associates. All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indexes listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.
*Though money market funds attempt to maintain a stable $1-per-share price, there is no guarantee they will always do so, and it is possible to lose money investing in a money market fund. A money market fund is not insured or guaranteed by the FDIC or any other government agency.

Wednesday, June 5, 2013

JEFF MITCHEL, CEO & FOUNDER OF MONOLITH FINANCIAL GROUP IN GRANITE BAY, CALIFORNIA SAYS HIS SECRET TO ACING THE “PILLOW TEST” IS TRANSPARENCY

“I want my clients to lay their heads down on their pillows and not worry about what their financial future will bring in the morning,” says Jeff Mitchell, CEO and Founder of Monolith Financial Group in Granite Bay, California. After more than 22 years working in the financial industry, Mitchell says it’s his ability to help his clients sleep at night, worry-free from the turmoil in the market, that keeps him getting up in the morning.

Ensuring that his clients don’t have to worry about money for the rest of their lives is no easy feat, especially during a span of time economists call “the lost decade” and after the market crashes of 2001 and 2008. These challenges cannot be overcome with a one-size-fits-all plan, although that is exactly what many financial planners offer. Mitchell says “If you’re alive and have money, you fit their ‘plan’! That’s how a lot of advisors work. Everyone who comes into their offices walks out with the same plan.” Monolith Financial Group, however, has the flexibility to create custom plans as unique as each of its clients.

Mitchell recommends that retirees look for “an adviser who is open to everything out there, who can get access to all of the amazing products.” Mitchell is securities-licensed, which means he doesn’t have to limit the scope of his offerings and can choose from hundreds of products and investments to find the best fit for his clients. His company provides insurance services, securities, mutual funds, stocks, bonds and first deeds, in addition to income and estate planning. “Most advisers have a set of products they constantly use, and their decisions are not about the client, they’re about the planner’s goals. I want everything that I do with my clients to be about their goals and dreams, so I listen 10 times more than I talk,” says Mitchell. However, the most important part of his process isn’t the products, but developing a trust-based relationship with his clients. To do this, Mitchell believes in complete transparency.

A few years ago, a 79-year-old woman walked into Mitchell’s office for a second opinion on her portfolio – a second opinion many retirees never get. As they reviewed her products together, Mitchell asked how much her broker’s plan charged her in fees. She didn’t know. One week later she walked back into Mitchell’s office to report what her broker of 20 years replied when she’d asked him that same question. At first, her broker tried to deflect her question as he always had by replying “don’t worry about it – it’s just built in.” When she pressed him further, he told her: “If you’re asking that, you don’t trust me. So you’d better go elsewhere.” It turned out that she was paying 3 ½ percent in fees, which amounted to $70,000 per year. She was wondering why she had lost so much money in her $2 million account, and these fees had been one of the most significant drains, second only to the products that exposed her savings to market downturns. If she made money, she paid even more in fees. She was in a situation she couldn’t win and her broker wasn’t even willing to explain it to her. Mitchell says that situation is all too common. “When someone comes in and asks me about my fees,” he says, “I write it down on a piece of paper so they can take it with them. We have to be more transparent in our business.”

Not only is Mitchell happy to tell his clients when he makes commissions and what fees are attached to any given product, he calls the companies that provide the products – with his clients on the line – so clients can hear the product details explained directly from the source. “It’s all about complete disclosure,” says Mitchell. “I’ve never once had a client come into my office who knew everything about the Variable Insurance products that they’ve bought – and that’s sad. The clients should have a better understanding of the products used in our industry,” he continues. Usually, when a retiree agrees to buy a product, the broker will hand over a 100-page prospectus and tell the client that the answers to their questions are “in there somewhere,” says Mitchell. By calling the companies, Mitchell’s clients get the truth straight from the source, rather than filtered through a broker. Then Mitchell takes a piece of paper and writes down what happens if the account in question goes up, and what will happen if it goes down.

Mitchell is particularly concerned about income riders and variable annuities. “The income rider situation is going to blow up in the industry’s face,” he says. “These accounts that are ‘guaranteed to grow’ by 6 to 7 percent every year don’t quite work the way they’re presented,” he warns. And, while he says not all income riders are bad when used properly and explained fully, he cautions that they often seem to work best for insurance companies and brokers – not clients. “I don’t like variable annuities because of their high fees – I’ve seen them over 4 percent. If you’re paying out 4 percent every year, you’ll have to make 9 percent average just to make 5 percent profit. Then there are all these hidden things about them that aren’t disclosed to clients. All the clients hear is ‘it’s growing by 6 to 7 percent,’ but that’s not the whole story. Not by a long shot,” says Mitchell. He says that in more than 22 years working in the financial industry, he’s never once had a client who has had a variable annuity explained to him or her properly. 

Although he thinks products should come with explicit warning labels, Mitchell says there are many excellent options out there. “There are products that give 6 percent guaranteed growth as profit every year if you use it as a pension – it pays out over a lifetime for you and your spouse. And there’s long term care insurance, which is affordable when you’re younger. And there are products out there like life insurance and annuities which provide for long term care. There are a lot of avenues out there,” he says.

Providing for long term care is on the minds of most retirees, but especially for single women who make up a significant portion of Mitchell’s clientele. Women in particular need to ensure their individual well-being since they statistically outlive men. “‘Who’s going to take care of me?’ That is their big question. They just spent five to 10 years caring for their husbands and they’re drained. And their finances may be drained. They have to plan for the rest of their lives and they don’t want to be burdens on their kids. That’s one of the most important parts of my job: giving them peace of mind,” says Mitchell. The trend which concerns him most for this segment of the retiring population is the unscrupulous advisers who recommend unnecessary and expensive riders. He says, “They need to ask what are my costs and fees inside this? Can you lose money in this account? Do you have to die to get your money back out of the account? The attitude of too many advisors is ‘if you don’t know, it’s not going to bother you.’ Don’t ever accept ‘don’t worry about it,’ from your financial adviser.”

When it comes to selecting products for his clients, Mitchell first determines whether they have enough income already from Social Security, pensions, investments and real estate. “If you have a comfortable, sustainable income that lasts a lifetime for both the husband and wife, that’s the key. Income first, then you can have fun with other money,” he says. The trick, however, is that the income streams have to be “sustainable,” and Mitchell isn’t placing any bets on the longevity or reliability of Social Security – or even on private pensions. He says, “That’s why I have to have that open and honest relationship with my clients. I want to know where their income is, where their money is coming from. Guaranteed income is my number one concern. It’s changed drastically in the last five years or so – people never thought they would lose their pensions or have pension reductions. Now people with state and federal pensions are wondering what the future will hold.”

Taking a close, critical look at what other planners and retirees might consider to be “givens” is Mitchell’s specialty, but to get a complete picture, he also looks at possible future inheritances and whether his clients have children with special needs. Mitchell says, “When you think of planning for the remainder of someone’s life, it’s challenging, and there’s a lot of information that goes into it. Most advisors sit there half listening most of the time, already concocting a fee for the person across the table, because they were told to move a certain product that day.”

Most of his clients aren’t interested in buying a yacht or traveling all over Europe in high style. Keeping up with the cost of living, inflation and medical expenses are the priorities taking up his clients’ thoughts. While the goal itself is simple, Mitchell’s approach to it is detailed and specific: “I had a lady who said to me ‘I just want to keep up with the cost of living.’ I said, ‘that’s great, but that’s different for everybody. You might drive more than someone else and the price of gas would be a lot more important for you. She said ‘well, then I’d just like to keep up with the price of tomatoes.’ I said, ‘That’s easy, start planting those tomatoes in your backyard today.’” Mitchell recommends finding products that will adjust, or help subsidize, fixed pension incomes – products that ideally will pay out between 5 and 8 percent on your investible assets.

While ensuring a lifetime of comfortable income is highest on his clients’ lists of priorities, one traditional priority may be going by the wayside: saving now to maximize children’s inheritances later. Today’s retirees want to enjoy the money they have earned, reports Mitchell, whereas their parents saved to pass on money that would give their children and grandchildren a leg up in the world. “Most kids are doing OK today, and retirees want to enjoy their lives. It’s a paradigm change. I say the perfect plan is to spend every dime – and save one to get into heaven. And hopefully heaven doesn’t go up in price,” says Mitchell. 

However, for every parent and grandparent spending every dime, there are still those who’d like to pass on substantial legacies to their loved ones. The best way to do that, according to Mitchell, is to use a life insurance policy: “You can leave hundreds of thousands of dollars for hundreds of dollars.” One of his clients is leaving money in another way: a multigenerational IRA. “The father converted $300,000 of an IRA into a Roth with his three sons as beneficiaries. Each son will inherit $100,000 in a Roth IRA, giving them tax-free growth inside that account. They’ll have their accounts for the next 30 years, which could amount to over $1,500,000 in tax-free money,” explains Mitchell. Once the three sons have inherited their accounts, they are then able to pass on some, or all, of this money to their children. This creates an even longer lasting legacy. However, he adds, many money management companies won’t allow this type of planning with an IRA.

There are many roads to retirement and even more types of vehicles to get retirees safely on their ways, but retirement planners should review all the maps and all the varieties of products as comprehensively as Jeff Mitchell. Over more than two decades of navigating these roads, he is always prepared with alternate routes if roadblocks should occur. But the secret to his success and to his clients finding themselves in solid retirement during and beyond the “lost decade” is open and honest communication. “You dig really deep down to the core of somebody when you’re trying to plan like this for them. At least, you should be,” says Mitchell. One of the compliments he gets from his clients is “you really seem to care.” He says, “Yes, I definitely do.”



Monday, June 3, 2013

Market Week: June 3, 2013

The Markets

Whether it was "sell in May, go away" sentiment finally showing up or concern that the Fed might be closer to winding down economic support, investors decided to take profits last week, especially in the large, dividend-paying stocks of the Dow and S&P 500. As anxiety about potential future Fed action continued to build, the 10-year Treasury yield saw gains for the fifth straight week, hampering bond prices.

Last Week's Headlines
  • The U.S. economy grew 2.4% during the first quarter of 2013--a fraction less than the Bureau of Economic Analysis's 2.5% initial estimate but still an improvement from the previous quarter's 0.4%. Increases in business inventories and exports were slightly less than anticipated.
  • Home prices in the 20 cities measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller Index were up 10.9% from a year earlier. That was the strongest annual growth since 2006, and it put prices back at late 2003 levels. March was the third straight month in which all 20 cities saw gains, and 12 of the cities saw double-digit growth, with Phoenix, San Francisco, and Las Vegas all above 20%.
  • American spending declined 0.2% in April, in part because of lower car-related purchases and energy costs, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Lower rents and farm earnings cut personal incomes 0.1% during the month, though wages were up slightly, and the savings rate remained at 2.5%.
  • Federal prosecutors charged a Costa Rican digital currency exchange with enabling global cybercriminals to use its system to launder the proceeds of a variety of illegal activities. The charges allege that more than a million anonymous customers used Liberty Reserve's virtual exchange to transfer more than $6 billion internationally since 2006.
  • Freddie Mac said the interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit 3.81%, its highest level in a year, while the 15-year rate rose to 2.98%.
  • Unemployment in the 17-nation eurozone hit a new record of 12.2% in April, according to the European Union's statistical office. Inflation, while up slightly at 1.4%, remained well within the European Central Bank's 2% target.

Eye on the Week Ahead

Jobs and central bankers are expected to be the focus of the week. Given the unemployment rate's importance to future Fed actions, Friday's release will be of more than usual interest if there are any substantial changes. And given Europe's unemployment situation, investors will watch to see if the European Central Bank cuts interest rates on Thursday.
Key dates and data releases: U.S. manufacturing, construction spending (6/3); auto sales, balance of trade (6/4); U.S. services sector, business productivity/costs, factory orders, Fed "beige book" report (6/5); unemployment/payrolls (6/7).

Data sources: Includes data provided by Brounes & Associates. All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indexes listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.