Monday, July 28, 2014

Market Week: July 28, 2014

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The Markets

In a week that saw mostly mixed economic data and generally positive earnings reports, markets posted mixed results as well. While tech and international stocks posted slight gains, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost a little less than 1% after Friday's 123-point drop. Small caps continued their slump, and the S&P 500 finished the week flat despite hitting new records mid-week.

 

Last Week's Headlines

  • Consumer prices rose 0.3% in June. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the increase was driven largely by higher gas prices, which rose 3.3% and accounted for two-thirds of the increase. By comparison, last month's rise in inflation was more broad-based. Energy prices were mixed in June: electricity prices rose, while natural gas and fuel oil prices fell. Food prices rose modestly, while the index for all items except food and energy rose by a slight 0.1%. For the 12 months ended in June, inflation rose 2.1%.
  • Existing-home sales climbed 2.6% in June, reported the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). At a seasonally adjusted annual rate of more than 5 million, sales are at their highest rate since October 2013. Inventories rose 2.2% to 2.3 million homes, indicating a 5.5-month supply at the current rate of sales. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said, "Inventories are at their highest level in over a year and price gains have slowed to much more welcoming levels in many parts of the country. This bodes well for rising home sales in the upcoming months as consumers are provided with more choices."
  • On the other hand, sales of new single-family homes plummeted by more than 8% in June from May, according to a report issued jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. The seasonally adjusted rate of 406,000 homes was 11.5% lower than the June 2013 estimated figure.
  • The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced amendments to the rules that govern money market mutual funds. According to a press release issued by the SEC, the amendments are intended to guard against a run on such funds in times of crisis, "while preserving the benefits of the funds." The rules require a floating net asset value for prime money market funds serving an institutional client base. Prime money market funds serving individual investors will continue to strive for a stable $1 share price, although there can be no guarantees that such a price will be maintained. The new regulations also allow non-governmental money market funds to charge fees or impose other restrictions on investors attempting to withdraw funds during trying times. "This strong reform package will make our markets more resilient and enhance transparency and fairness of these products for America's investor," said Mary Jo White, SEC chairperson.
  • In a move that surprised many observers, the Bank of Russia raised its key interest rate for the third time in five months. The central bank lifted the rate by 0.5% to 8% in a move intended to curb inflation, respond to continued geopolitical unrest, and perhaps stymie additional flight of capital resulting from any further economic sanctions.
  • Unemployment insurance weekly claims (i.e., weekly jobless claims), were 284,000 for the week ending July 19. That was a decrease of 19,000 from the previous week and, more notable, the lowest level for initial claims since February 2006.

Eye on the Week Ahead

Next week, market watchers will keep an eye on manufacturing data, home prices, comments from the Fed, and the government's initial estimates for second-quarter growth figures.

Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.
Jeff Mitchell

Jeff Mitchell, Lead Advisor
Monolith Financial Group


Upcoming Events:

Dinner Seminars:

Thurs Aug 19 & Tues Aug 19
@ 6 pm
Kane's Family Resturant


Tues Sept. 23 & Thurs Sept 25
@ 6pm
Catta Verdera Country Club

Breakfast Club:

September 9
@ 9 am
Paul Martins

 
 

VICTORY!: Winning in Health, Wealth, & Success 
by Tom Hopkins, Jeff Mitchell

What makes a successful retirement? The new book book VICTORY!, co-authored by Jeff, joins world leading experts as they discuss their secrets for winning in health, wealth, and success in the new economy. 

eBooks available! We just ask that you contact us if you would like your free copy. 

Monday, July 14, 2014

Annuity Income Riders - Are They Worth the Cost?

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Annuity Income Riders - Are They Worth the Cost?
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The Markets

After Alcoa's strong report unofficially kicked off the Q2 earnings season, domestic equities rebounded from two down days. However, investors decided to take advantage of equities' recent record levels and take some profits after revelations about a banking problem in Portugal revived concerns about Europe's financial sector. Meanwhile, the spot price of oil, which had spiked to $107 two weeks ago, ended the week just over $100 a barrel.

Last Week's Headlines

  • The Federal Reserve currently expects its bond purchases to end in October, according to minutes of the most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting. However, the minutes also reiterated that the end of bond-buying won't automatically mean higher interest rates, at least not for a "considerable time." The Fed also will continue to reinvest the proceeds of maturing bonds it already holds until after it acts on rates.
  • Talks aimed at trying to address U.S.-China differences over Chinese currency policies began. The United States contends that those policies have kept the yuan artificially low, giving Chinese companies an unfair pricing advantage. Meanwhile, Chinese exports were up 7.2% in June from a year earlier, according to China's General Administration of Customs.
  • A major Portuguese lender's failure to make payments on some of its short-term debt raised concerns once again about the stability of European banks and the possibility of contagion. Banco Espirito Santo has been known to be struggling since December, but investor reaction to the disclosure caused several other European companies to postpone bond offerings.

Eye on the Week Ahead

Q2 earnings reports from some major financial and tech companies, due next week, could influence investor thinking about whether Q1's discouraging GDP really has given way to renewed growth. Housing and inflation data also are likely to be closely watched.

Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.
Jeff Mitchell

Jeff Mitchell, Lead Advisor
Monolith Financial Group


Upcoming Events:

Dinner Seminars:

Thurs Aug 19 & Tues Aug 19
@ 6 pm
Kane's Family Resturant


Tues Sept. 23 & Thurs Sept 25
@ 6pm
Catta Verdera Country Club

Breakfast Club:

September 9
@ 9 am
Paul Martins

 
 

VICTORY!: Winning in Health, Wealth, & Success 
by Tom Hopkins, Jeff Mitchell

What makes a successful retirement? The new book book VICTORY!, co-authored by Jeff, joins world leading experts as they discuss their secrets for winning in health, wealth, and success in the new economy. 

eBooks available! We just ask that you contact us if you would like your free copy. 


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Monday, July 7, 2014

Can You Afford Another Market Crash?

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Protect Your Gains Before a Market Crash!
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The Markets


After generally positive economic data once again suggested that the economy really did begin to rebound this spring, the Dow industrials surpassed 17,000 for the first time, while the S&P 500 hit three new all-time records during the week. And as investors embraced stocks, worries about the potential impact of a strong economy on potential Fed rate increases also sent the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield up and the price down.

 

Last Week's Headlines

  • The unemployment rate fell to 6.1% in June; that's 1.4% lower than a year earlier and the lowest level in almost six years. The economy added 288,000 new jobs during the month, higher than the 272,000 monthly average since March. The data, coupled with upward revisions to payroll figures for April and May, suggested possible acceleration in job growth. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the widespread job gains were led by professional/business services, retail, restaurants/bars, and health care.
  • TA 2% increase in new orders placed with U.S. manufacturers put orders at their highest level since late 2013. Even though the Institute for Supply Management's index showed that manufacturing growth didn't accelerate in June, it still remained at a healthy 55.3% reading (any number above 50 represents expansion). The ISM's measure of the services sector also showed slightly slower growth than the previous month, though the reading remained at a robust 56.3%.
  • After three straight monthly increases, new orders for U.S. manufactured goods slipped 0.5% in May, though most of the decline was in the volatile transportation sector. The Commerce Department also said inventories were at their highest level on record and have increased 18 of the last 19 months.
  • Commercial construction spending rose 1.1% in May, but the Commerce Department said that was largely offset by a 1.4% drop in the value of new home projects. The 0.1% overall increase in construction spending was weaker than April's 0.8% gain, but the annual rate was 6.6% higher than a year ago.
  • As expected, the European Central Bank left two key interest rates unchanged, hoping that measures taken last month will be enough to help stimulate the economy.
  • Higher auto-related exports and less spending on imported oil and consumer goods helped cut the U.S. trade deficit by 5.5% in May to $44.4 billion, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
  • The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that closely held, for-profit companies can choose to opt out of a provision of the Affordable Care Act that requires that employees' insurance include coverage for birth control. The court also ruled that workers who aren't full-fledged public employees cannot be required to pay fees to a union even if they benefit from its collective bargaining efforts.
  • Two separate assessments suggested that China's sluggish manufacturing sector may be rebounding. The reading on the Chinese government's purchasing managers' index nudged up slightly to 51 in May. Meanwhile, HSBC/Markit's Manufacturing PMI was basically flat but stayed in expansion territory, apparently responding to small steps taken by the government to stimulate economic growth.

Eye on the Week Ahead

In a week that's light on fresh economic reports, investors may begin to focus on the Q2 earnings season, which has its unofficial start on Tuesday when Alcoa reports. Minutes of the most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting could shed new light on the debate over whether the Fed should be concerned yet about inflation.

Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.
Jeff Mitchell

Jeff Mitchell, Lead Advisor
Monolith Financial Group


Upcoming Events:

Lunch Seminars
Tues July 8th & Thurs July 10th @11 Am
McCormick & Scmick's
 
 

VICTORY!: Winning in Health, Wealth, & Success 
by Tom Hopkins, Jeff Mitchell

What makes a successful retirement? The new book book VICTORY!, co-authored by Jeff, joins world leading experts as they discuss their secrets for winning in health, wealth, and success in the new economy. 

eBooks available! We just ask that you contact us if you would like your free copy.