Monday, March 30, 2015

Market Week: March 30, 2015

A weekly update from Jeff Mitchell, your Trusted Advisor.
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The Markets
An uptick in equities on Friday couldn't overcome the four-day downdraft across the board that preceded it. Whether the slump was caused by weak economic data, a fresh outbreak of Middle East conflict, a discouraging report about corporate profits, or simple profit-taking after the previous week's strength, it left the S&P 500 a whisker away from flat for the year and wiped out all year-to-date gains for the Dow industrials. Military action in Yemen, a country situated at a key chokepoint for Middle Eastern oil shipments, was seen as a potential threat to supplies and fueled a bounce in the price of oil. However, anxiety about equities didn't translate into gains for the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note, which remained relatively stable. Gold built on the upswing that began the previous week; it has now gained roughly $50 an ounce in a little less than two weeks.


Last Week's Headlines

  • The Bureau of Economic Analysis's final figures confirmed that U.S. growth slowed in 2014's final quarter, dropping from 5% in Q3 to 2.2%. That meant GDP increased 2.4% over all of 2014. The 4.4% increase in consumer spending was the biggest quarterly gain since the first quarter of 2006, but a 12.2% decline in federal defense spending and a 10.4% increase in imports helped offset it. Meanwhile, a 1.6% drop in the quarter's after-tax corporate profits (adjusted for inventories and capital consumption) contributed to an 8.3% annual decline for 2014--the worst year for profits since 2008.
  • A 1.4% drop in February durable goods orders--the third decline in the last four months--confirmed a winter slowdown in the economy, according to the Commerce Department. Just as troubling was a 2.6% slump in business spending on capital equipment.
  • Fed Chair Janet Yellen confirmed that although the Fed's key interest rate is unlikely to remain near zero for the rest of the year, any increases will probably be very gradual. She cited a number of factors that could keep rate hikes moderate, including the strong dollar, low inflation, and examples of countries abroad who suffered from raising rates prematurely.
  • Sales of existing homes rose in February, and ongoing low inventories of homes for sale pushed prices up once again. According to the National Association of Realtors®, February's 1.2% increase put home resales 4.7% ahead of a year earlier. Meanwhile, the $202,600 median home sales price represented a 7.5% gain over the last 12 months, while the housing inventory is half a percent lower than a year ago.
  • New home sales also were up by 7.8% in February, and the January figure was revised upward. The Commerce Department said that put sales almost 25% higher than last February, and the 539,000 annual sales rate for new single-family homes hasn't been that high since February 2008.
  • After three months of falling consumer prices, consumer inflation turned up 0.2% in February. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said energy, food, and housing costs all contributed to the monthly increase, which left the inflation rate over the last 12 months essentially flat.
  • Greek government officials met with major international creditors to try to ensure that more detailed plans for economic reform will be sufficient to qualify for the next round of bailout funds from its major international creditors, which would help with a €460 million payment to the International Monetary Fund that is due on April 9. Meanwhile, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and German Chancellor Angela Merkel struck a conciliatory tone after a one-on-one meeting in Berlin.
Eye on the Week Ahead
U.S. and Chinese manufacturing data and Friday's U.S. unemployment report are likely to be the highlights of the holiday-shortened week as the Q1 earnings season approaches. Overseas, the Yemen situation and any initial reactions to Greece's economic proposals will be monitored.
Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.
Jeff Mitchell

Jeff Mitchell, Lead Advisor
Monolith Financial Group


Upcoming Events:

Educational Seminars

Sutter Street Steakhouse
March 31 & April 2
@ 6 pm

Catta Verdera Country Club
April 21 & 23
@ 6 pm

Get on the guest list
*Clients, this is a great opportunity to "Be the Key"- bring a guest or two!

***These are to benefit people who have not met with Jeff and would benefit from our services.***
 
 

VICTORY!: Winning in Health, Wealth, & Success 
by Tom Hopkins, Jeff Mitchell

What makes a successful retirement? The new book book VICTORY!, co-authored by Jeff, joins world leading experts as they discuss their secrets for winning in health, wealth, and success in the new economy. 

eBooks available! We just ask that you contact us if you would like your free copy. 

Monolith Financial Group, LLC's outgoing and incoming e-mails are electronically archived and subject to review and/or disclosure to someone other than the recipient. We cannot accept requests for securities transactions or other similar instructions through e-mail. We cannot ensure the security of information e-mailed over the Internet, so you should be careful when transmitting confidential information such as account numbers and security holdings. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient  or an employee or agent responsible for delivering this message to the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution or copying of this communication is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by replying to this message and deleting it from you computer. 
Copyright © 2015 Monolith Financial Group, All rights reserved.

Monday, March 23, 2015

Market Week: March 23, 2015

A weekly update from Jeff Mitchell, your Trusted Advisor.
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The Markets
An easy-does-it approach from the Federal Reserve's monetary policycommittee calmed immediate investor anxiety about future rate hikes. That gave both the Dow and the S&P 500 relief from a three-week losing streak. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq closed less than half a percentage point away from its all-time closing high of 5048.62, set in March 2000, and the small caps of the Russell 2000 continued to capitalize on fears of the impact of dollar strength on larger, multinational companies.

The Fed's mild-mannered language also triggered a rapid drop in the U.S. dollar. Speculation
 about rate hikes had pushed the dollar's value to roughly $1.05 against the euro at the beginning of the week. That plunged to $1.10 post-Fed before the dollar rebounded to end the week at roughly $1.07. Meanwhile, after the Fed announcement, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell as investors felt more comfortable with bonds--at least temporarily.


Last Week's Headlines

  • As expected, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee is no longer promising patience in starting to raise its target interest rate, which could mean a rate hike as soon as June. However, even if increases do begin in summer--and many Fed-watchers now expect a later start--committee members see rates rising at a more gradual pace than previously expected. A majority of members now predict a target rate of 0.625% by year-end--a half-point lower than last December's forecast of 1.125%--while the median forecast for December 2016 is now 1.875% instead of 2.5%. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said that's because the committee sees more moderate growth now than it did several months ago; factors that could help moderate the pace and timing of rate hikes include downward pressure on U.S. exports (partly because of a stronger dollar), low inflation, and interest rate cuts abroad.
  • Housing starts plummeted 17% in February as winter weather cut new residential construction to its lowest level in more than a year. The worst pain was seen in the Northeast, where starts fell 56.5% during the month. However, the decline could be temporary; the Commerce Department said building permits--an indicator of future activity--were up 3% from January and were 7.7% ahead of a year earlier.
  • Winter weather also increased the output of the nation's utilities by 7.7% in February, which in turn helped push industrial production up 0.1% during the month. The Federal Reserve said a 0.2% drop in manufacturing output was the third straight monthly decline, while utilization of the industrial sector's manufacturing capacity fell to 78.9%, slightly below its long-term average. Meanwhile, both the Empire State and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys showed modest growth that, while positive, was essentially unchanged from January's pace.
  • The Department of the Interior unveiled new regulations for use of hydraulic fracturing (fracking) to drill for oil and gas on public lands. The new rules, scheduled to take effect in 90 days, will not affect drilling on private and state-owned land, where most fracking is done.
  • Greece has now made three of four repayments due on a €1.5 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund (a fourth was due on Friday). However, the country is reportedly facing a cash shortage that could make further payments difficult, and leaders continue to try to persuade other European Union members that greater leniency about the bailout's terms is needed. Meanwhile, the Greek parliament declined to consult the country's creditors before passing a bill that attempts to offset austerity measures; the government says the estimated €200 million cost of the program will be paid for by spending cuts, changes in governmental procurement practices, and new gaming-related revenues.
Eye on the Week Ahead
With rate-hike angst on temporary hold, domestic U.S. economic data may assume increased importance, though a Friday speech by Janet Yellen will be closely watched for more clarity about timing. A scheduled Monday meeting between Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and German Chancellor Angela Merkel to discuss the Greek debt situation could rachet up concerns about Europe once again.
Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.
Jeff Mitchell

Jeff Mitchell, Lead Advisor
Monolith Financial Group


Upcoming Events:

Educational Seminars

Sutter Street Steakhouse
March 31 & April 2
@ 6 pm

Catta Verdera Country Club
April 21 & 23
@ 6 pm

Get on the guest list
*Clients, this is a great opportunity to "Be the Key"- bring a guest or two!
 
 

VICTORY!: Winning in Health, Wealth, & Success 
by Tom Hopkins, Jeff Mitchell

What makes a successful retirement? The new book book VICTORY!, co-authored by Jeff, joins world leading experts as they discuss their secrets for winning in health, wealth, and success in the new economy. 

eBooks available! We just ask that you contact us if you would like your free copy. 

Monolith Financial Group, LLC's outgoing and incoming e-mails are electronically archived and subject to review and/or disclosure to someone other than the recipient. We cannot accept requests for securities transactions or other similar instructions through e-mail. We cannot ensure the security of information e-mailed over the Internet, so you should be careful when transmitting confidential information such as account numbers and security holdings. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient  or an employee or agent responsible for delivering this message to the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution or copying of this communication is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by replying to this message and deleting it from you computer. 
Copyright © 2015 Monolith Financial Group, All rights reserved.

Monday, March 16, 2015

Market Week: March 16, 2015

A weekly update from Jeff Mitchell, your Trusted Advisor.
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The Markets
Bulls and bears duked it out last week, with the Dow experiencing multiple triple-digit intraday swings. In the end, the bears prevailed as the Dow and S&P 500 had their third straight week of losses, which sent both back into negative territory for the year. The dollar continued to gain strength, hitting $1.06 against the euro (its highest level since January 2003), while the price of oil, which had been above $50 a barrel at the beginning of the month, fell to roughly $45. Coupled with the start of quantitative easing by the European Central Bank, that raised concerns about how U.S. multinational companies' sales overseas would fare going forward. The small caps of the Russell 2000, which are seen as having less international exposure, had the week's only gains.


Last Week's Headlines

  • Wholesale prices in the United States fell 0.5% in February, mostly because of the eighth straight monthly decline in costs for final-demand goods such as fuel/lubricants, machinery/equipment, and apparel. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said wholesale prices overall have now fallen 0.6% over the last 12 months.
  • Retail sales fell for the third straight month as February's harsh winter weather helped cut spending by 0.6%. The Commerce Department said declines were seen in virtually all segments of the retail sector. However, retail sales as a whole were 1.7% ahead of February 2014.
  • Job openings (sometimes seen as a proxy for workers' willingness to risk changing jobs) continued to rise, reaching 5 million in January. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said openings have now risen above their March 2007 peak. The number of people quitting their jobs in January was 3% higher than in December, according to the BLS's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, and has now increased 17% over the last year.
  • The recent slight bump in oil prices is probably temporary, according to the International Energy Agency's monthly report. The IEA warned that increased U.S. oil production could soon exceed storage capacity, which could renew downward pressure on prices. Financial markets have been concerned that falling oil prices might hit energy stocks hard and lead to production cutbacks and layoffs. While that might help stabilize oil prices, it could take a toll on the rest of the economy as well as stock indices that include a large energy component.
Eye on the Week Ahead
All eyes will be on the statement to be issued Wednesday by the Federal Open Market Committee. Any change in language--for example, not continuing to say that the committee will be "patient" about interest rates--could unleash more speculation about a June rate hike. Conversely, retention of the p-word might fuel speculation about a possible delay.
Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.
Jeff Mitchell

Jeff Mitchell, Lead Advisor
Monolith Financial Group


Upcoming Events:

Educational Seminars

Sutter Street Steakhouse
March 31 & April 2
@ 6 pm

Catta Verdera Country Club
April 21 & 23
@ 6 pm

Get on the guest list
*Clients, this is a great opportunity to "Be the Key"- bring a guest or two!
 
 

VICTORY!: Winning in Health, Wealth, & Success 
by Tom Hopkins, Jeff Mitchell

What makes a successful retirement? The new book book VICTORY!, co-authored by Jeff, joins world leading experts as they discuss their secrets for winning in health, wealth, and success in the new economy. 

eBooks available! We just ask that you contact us if you would like your free copy. 

Monolith Financial Group, LLC's outgoing and incoming e-mails are electronically archived and subject to review and/or disclosure to someone other than the recipient. We cannot accept requests for securities transactions or other similar instructions through e-mail. We cannot ensure the security of information e-mailed over the Internet, so you should be careful when transmitting confidential information such as account numbers and security holdings. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient  or an employee or agent responsible for delivering this message to the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution or copying of this communication is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by replying to this message and deleting it from you computer. 
Copyright © 2015 Monolith Financial Group, All rights reserved.

Monday, March 2, 2015

Market Week: March 2, 2015

A weekly update from Jeff Mitchell, your Trusted Advisor.
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The Markets
Equities markets were mildly buoyed by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's congressional testimony and the grudging approval of Greece's plans for qualifying for additional assistance. The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 hit new record highs during the week. However, both had backed away from those highs by week's end after U.S. economic growth was shown to be weaker than expected.


Last Week's Headlines

  • In her semiannual testimony before Congress, Federal Chair Janet Yellen continued to lay the groundwork for a rate increase later this year without spelling out when that might happen. Emphasizing continued domestic economic progress, she said that even once language about "patience" disappears from Fed statements, a rate increase would likely not occur for at least two meetings. If that language change occurred at the March meeting, that would mean an increase would be unlikely before June.
  • Two of Greece's key creditors essentially told the financially stressed country to "put up or shut up." The heads of the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank expressed skepticism about whether Greece would follow through on reforms proposed as part of a deal to obtain a four-month extension of the country's current bailout agreement. The IMF said current descriptions of how taxes, pensions, privatization of key assets, and trade policies would be overhauled lacked a "clear commitment" to details about implementation.
  • U.S. economic growth in Q4 2014 was less robust than initially thought. The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised its estimate of gross domestic product downward from 2.6% to 2.2%, primarily because imports were higher and private inventory investment was less than in previous estimates.
  • A 0.1% increase in home prices in December contributed to a 4.5% year-over-year gain in the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index. The western half of the country saw the strongest gains, while the Midwest and Northeast lagged.
  • Sales of existing homes in January slumped 4.9% to their lowest level in nine months, but the National Association of Realtors® said they were still 3.2% higher than last January. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said new-home sales slumped 0.2% during the month.
  • Lower gas prices helped cut consumer inflation by 0.7% in January, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That's the biggest monthly decline since 2008, and left the annual inflation rate for the past 12 months at -0.1%.
  • Durable goods orders were up 2.8% in January; according to the Commerce Department, that was the biggest monthly increase since last July. New orders for nondefense capital equipment saw a slight 0.6% gain.
  • Rate cuts rather than increases were announced by China's central bank over the weekend. The People's Bank of China cut its benchmark one-year lending and deposit rates to 5.35% and 2.5% less than four months after previous cuts in November. The quarter-point cuts are a fresh attempt to stimulate a slowing economy.
  • The Federal Communications Commission voted to regulate Internet service as a public utility, much as telephone service is regulated. The decision will enable the commission to enforce so-called "net neutrality" and prevent service providers from charging for priority access or interfering with traffic. However, telecom and cable companies are expected to challenge the decision in court.
Eye on the Week Ahead
In a data-heavy week, Friday's unemployment figure will be of interest. Also, the European Central Bank will meet on Thursday to discuss its bond-buying efforts.
Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.
Jeff Mitchell

Jeff Mitchell, Lead Advisor
Monolith Financial Group


Upcoming Events:

Educational Seminars

Sutter Street Steakhouse
March 31 & April 2
@ 6 pm

Catta Verdera Country Club
April 21 & 23
@ 6 pm

Get on the guest list
*Clients, this is a great opportunity to "Be the Key"- bring a guest or two!
 
 

VICTORY!: Winning in Health, Wealth, & Success 
by Tom Hopkins, Jeff Mitchell

What makes a successful retirement? The new book book VICTORY!, co-authored by Jeff, joins world leading experts as they discuss their secrets for winning in health, wealth, and success in the new economy. 

eBooks available! We just ask that you contact us if you would like your free copy. 

Monolith Financial Group, LLC's outgoing and incoming e-mails are electronically archived and subject to review and/or disclosure to someone other than the recipient. We cannot accept requests for securities transactions or other similar instructions through e-mail. We cannot ensure the security of information e-mailed over the Internet, so you should be careful when transmitting confidential information such as account numbers and security holdings. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient  or an employee or agent responsible for delivering this message to the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution or copying of this communication is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by replying to this message and deleting it from you computer. 
Copyright © 2015 Monolith Financial Group, All rights reserved.