The Markets
The markets responded favorably following the Federal Reserve's announcement that interest rates would not be raised next month. Both the large-cap Dow and S&P 500 closed ahead of last week. But the biggest weekly gainers were the Nasdaq, which gained 1.3%, and the Russell 2000, which closed the week 1.55% better than last Friday's close. The national average for gas prices was $2.835--up $0.055 from last week. Gold finished the week up $21 from last week, selling at $1,200.20.
Last Week's Headlines
- Economic activity has been "expanding moderately" according to the statement from the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting. But short-term interest rates will remain as is, at least through the next monthly meeting. The FOMC noted that the "pace of job gains picked up while the unemployment rate remained steady," there has been growth in household spending, and the "housing sector has shown some improvement; however, business fixed investment and net exports stayed soft." Inflation continued to run below the committee's longer-run objective (2%). Ultimately, the committee determined that the current federal funds rate is appropriate pending progress "toward maximum employment and price stability." Before federal fund rates will be increased, the committee "would like to see more decisive evidence that moderate pace of economic activity can be sustained," according to Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen.
- Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 267,000 for the week ending June 13, which is a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week. The advanced seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.7% for the week ending June 6, while the total number of insured unemployment claimants was 2.22 million, a decrease of 50,000 from the previous week. Evidencing signs of consistent job creation, new claims have remained under 300,000 over the past 15 weeks--the longest such stretch since 2000, according to the Wall Street Journal. Nevertheless, "at 5.5%, we have an unemployment rate that still exceeds the (Federal Reserve) committee's best attempts to estimate what is a normal unemployment rate for this economy," according to Chairwoman Yellen.
- The Federal Reserve reported on Monday that industrial production decreased 0.2% in May after falling 0.5% in April. Manufacturing output decreased 0.2% in May and was little changed, on net, from its level in January. Meager industrial production is likely due to weak exports and a relatively strong dollar, which could further strengthen if interest rates are raised later this year.
- Housing starts dropped off in May, but the number of residential building permits soared according to the latest report from the Census Bureau. Privately owned housing starts (e.g., the actual start of construction of a new building) in May were 11.1% below the revised April estimate, but are 5.1% above the May 2014 rate. On the other hand, building permits for housing units were 11.8% above the revised April rate, and 25.4% higher than May 2014. This increase in anticipated new construction is cause for builder optimism according to the National Association of Home Builders. Their housing market index rose 5 points to a reading of 59 for June.
- The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in May over April, which is its largest monthly increase since February 2013. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the largest cost increase belonged to energy, particularly gasoline, which increased 10.4%. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1% in May following a 0.3% increase in April.
Eye on the Week Ahead
How will the markets respond to results of the FOMC meeting and Chairwoman Yellen's speech? Will Greece and its creditors reach a bailout resolution? Throughout the second quarter of 2015, the housing market has been consistently trending upward. Will this week's reports on new and existing home sales show continued growth?
Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates). All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indices listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.
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