Market Week: October 31, 2011

The Markets Double-barreled relief over the economy and the plan for attacking the European debt crisis powered a rally in equities. In the wake of Thursday's 340-point jump in the Dow, the industrials were closing in on their best month since January 1987 with a 12% gain, and the Russell 2000's 18% gain since September 30 will likely make October its best month ever. By Friday, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq had regained roughly three-fourths of their losses since mid-July. The renewed global optimism sent bond yields up.

Last Week's Headlines

• Eurozone leaders finally announced an agreement they hope will build a firewall around Europe's sovereign debt problems and enable banks to keep credit flowing in the region. Under the agreement, banks holding Greek debt will receive 50% of what they're owed, in hopes that the reduction will enable Greece to cut its debt to 120% of its gross domestic product (GDP) by 2020. To help cushion future losses, banks will have to raise €147 billion to cover higher capital reserves. The agreement also would raise the resources of the European Financial Stability Facility to roughly €1.4 trillion, though there were no details on how the increase would be paid for. Finally, the agreement allows the EFSF to maximize its resources by guaranteeing sovereign bonds or setting up special-purpose vehicles to provide financial support.

• The odds of a double-dip recession seemed to dim after the Commerce Department said the economy grew almost twice as fast in the third quarter as it did during the second. The 2.5% initial estimate of growth surpassed Q2's 1.3% and Q1's anemic 0.4%. The report also said that consumer spending rose 2.4%, including a 4.1% increase in durable goods and 3% growth in spending on services. Exports were up 4%, and business capital spending jumped 16.3%. Government spending was unchanged as a 1.3% drop in state and local government spending helped offset a 2% increase in federal government spending.
• Home prices rose in August in the 20 cities tracked by the S&P/Case-Shiller index. Though prices were still 3.8% lower than a year earlier, the increase was the fifth in a row, suggesting that prices could be starting to stabilize. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said sales of new single-family homes were up 5.7% in September.
• Americans spent more and saved less in September; according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, consumer spending was up 0.6%, while the savings rate dipped to 3.6% from 4.1% the month before. Meanwhile, incomes rose 0.1%.
• A drop in orders for transportation equipment led to a 0.8% decrease in new durable goods orders in September. The Commerce Department said it was the third straight month of declines.
• The more income you had over the last two decades, the more income you got, according to a study by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. For the 1% of the population with the highest income, average real after-tax income rose 275% between 1979 and 2007. Households in the top 20% saw a 65% increase in income, while for the 60% of the population in the middle, incomes grew just under 40%. Those in the bottom 20% saw an 18% increase from 1969 to 2007. The CBO said the shift in overall pre-tax income (not counting taxes and payments such as Medicare/Social Security benefits) was caused by two factors. Income sources, such as jobs, became increasingly concentrated in fewer individuals (the most important factor); also, capital gains and business income represented a larger percentage of overall U.S. income, while the share of income from salaries and wages fell.

Eye on the Week Ahead

Earnings reports should receive more attention now that a European rescue operation has been announced (though details of the debt game plan also will be under scrutiny). Unemployment data will be of interest in light of the new GDP number, as will the Fed's Wednesday announcement.

Key dates and data releases: U.S. manufacturing, auto sales, construction spending (11/1); Federal Reserve Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting (11/2); weekly new jobless claims (11/3); business productivity, factory orders, U.S. services sector (11/3); unemployment/payrolls (11/4).

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Data sources: Includes data provided by Brounes & Associates. Index historical performance based on data from theStock Trader's Almanac 2011. All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Equities data reflect price change, not total return.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indexes listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

Market Week: October 24, 2011

The Markets A tug-of-war between earnings and Europe dominated equities last week. The Dow industrials overcame a discouraging start to the week and managed a third straight week of gains. However, the Nasdaq slipped back into the loss column, while the S&P 500's encouraging week still left it in negative territory for the year and the small-cap Russell 2000 continued to struggle.

Last Week's Headlines Despite strong words from G-20 finance ministers about the need for a formal plan for containing the damage from European debt problems, the eurozone continued to debate ways to enhance the European Financial Stability Facility's resources. However, any formal agreement failed to appear last week, though French and German leaders said they anticipated having one this week. In the meantime, Moody's warned that France's AAA debt could be hit with a negative outlook if its budget is strained by bailout demands; it also downgraded Spain's debt from Aa2 to A1. September's 0.3% consumer inflation rate was the third increase in as many months. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, that put the inflation rate for the last 12 months at 2%. At the wholesale level, inflation was worse; driven mostly by a 2.3% jump in energy costs and a 10% increase in the prices of vegetables, it spiked up 0.8% in September, for a 6.9% rate for the last year. Federal Reserve manufacturing numbers were mixed. The New York region was negative for a fifth straight month, while new orders were flat. However, the Philadelphia Fed survey showed improvement, jumping from -17.5 in September to 8.7, the first positive number in three months. Nationwide, industrial production rose 0.2% in September and was 3.2% higher than a year ago. China's efforts to try to control inflation there contributed to a slower pace of economic growth--9.1%--during the third quarter. According to China's National Bureau of Statistics, that's down from Q2's 9.5%. Housing starts shot up 15% in September, putting them 10.2% above last year. According to the Commerce Department, that's the highest level since before the homeowner's tax credit expired last year. Building permits, an indicator of future construction activity, fell 5% from August, though they also were up from a year ago. Sales of existing homes dropped 3% in September, according to the National Association of Realtors®, though compared to the previous September, they were up 11.3%. Eye on the Week Ahead Action or lack thereof at the midweek European debt summit is likely to affect the mood of the markets. A first look at Q3 economic growth also will be of interest. Key dates and data releases: home prices, consumer confidence (10/25); new home sales, durable goods orders (10/26); initial estimate of Q3 gross domestic product, pending home sales, weekly new jobless claims (10/27); personal income/spending, labor costs, consumer sentiment (10/28). Data source: Includes data provided by Brounes & Associates. All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Equities data reflect price change, not total return. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indexes listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.

Market Week: October 17, 2011

The Markets Welcome relief: Equities built strongly on last week's gains as the Dow and Nasdaq surged back into positive territory for 2011. The S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000 all had their strongest week of the year, with the tech-heavy NASDAQ and the small-cap Russell seeing the biggest gains. Little Slovakia provided at least some temporary reassurance about European bailout capabilities, which encouraged investors to drive bond yields higher as prices fell.

Last Week's Headlines After an initial negative vote, Slovakia provided the final ratification of expanded powers for the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), enabling it to buy bonds issued by troubled eurozone countries. Meanwhile, there were more ratings downgrades: Standard & Poor's cut Spain to AA- with a negative outlook, indicating additional downgrades are likely in the future. It also downgraded several Spanish banks, while Fitch cut the ratings of four other European banks. A 1.1% improvement in September's retail sales represented the biggest increase in seven months, though the figures are not adjusted for price increases. A 3.6% increase in auto sales helped a lot after having been hurt earlier in the year by parts shortages. According to the Commerce Department, even without autos, retail sales still rose 0.6%. Minutes of last month's Federal Reserve Open Markets Committee (FOMC) showed that members seem to be as divided as the rest of the country over whether and how to stimulate the economy. Some felt the Fed's recent decision to tweak its bond portfolio was not necessary; others argued for more aggressive measures. Eye on the Week Ahead As earnings season gets into high gear, several bellwether banks and tech companies are scheduled to report. Two key manufacturing surveys and inflation data also will serve as economic indicators. Key dates and data releases: Empire State manufacturing survey, industrial production (10/17); wholesale inflation, international capital flows, housing market (10/18); consumer inflation, housing starts, Fed "beige book" report (10/19); weekly new jobless claims, home resales, Philadelphia Fed survey (10/20). Data source: Includes data provided by Brounes & Associates. All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Equities data reflect price change, not total return. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. Market indexes listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.